We tend to think of dictators as all-powerful leaders who act with
naked cruelty and impunity. Think of Bashar al Assad in Syria. Or, for a
celluloid reminder, think of Sacha Baron Cohen as Gen. Admiral Aladeen, a North
African despot.
But the film "The Dictator" — and our imagination of
dictators — is getting outdated. The new dictator is more evolved and more
attuned to how people think.
A new book highlights that trend. It's called "The
Dictator's Learning Curve" by William
Dobson.
Dictators have gotten smart, Dobson writes, to keep pace with
changes in technology. Old-school oppressors like Mao, Pol Pot or Idi Amin
could keep their atrocities relatively secret. That's not possible today. If a
dictator tried to orchestrate a mass killing and keep it secret, he'd likely
fail. It would end up on YouTube.
Uganda's Joseph Kony is now an
internet phenomenon. Charles Taylor of Liberia was recently found guilty by the
U.N. Special Court for Sierra Leone. Sudan's President Bashir has been
indicted.
So today's cleverest dictators have evolved. They allow a certain
amount of dissent, as an escape valve.
Consider China. There's a new study out this week by three political scientists at Harvard. They've devised a way to
analyze millions of social media posts in China. What's special is that they
claim to do this before the Chinese government gets to censor them - so it provides a
unique insight not just into what the Chinese people think, but also what the
government deems necessary to censor.
What do they find? Contrary to what you'd think, it turns out
criticisms of the state are not more likely to get censored. Even vitriolic criticisms are
allowed. Instead, the focus is on stopping mass mobilization. Last year Beijing
blocked internet searches for Tunisia's "Jasmine Revolution" to
prevent discussions about the Arab Spring. Similarly last week searches for the
numbers 4/6 were censored - the numbers represented June 4th, the anniversary
of the massacre at Tiananmen Square.
The Harvard study shows that Beijing's leaders are making measured
concessions. It is said that some 500 protests take place every day across
China. But anything that could lead to something larger or more organized is
instantly censored and clamped down on.
Another example - Putin's Russia has usually allowed the print
media a great deal of freedom, on the theory that what a few tens of thousands
of people read in Moscow and St. Petersburg doesn't matter. But the regime has
taken over television news completely, so mass opinion is carefully controlled
out of the Kremlin.
We're witnessing a trend in China, Russia, Venezeula, and many
other countries - even Myanmar. Gone are the days when dictators could
completely ignore the demands of their people.
As citizens become more exposed to events around the world, more
connected to each other on the internet and social media, dictators will have
to make greater concessions. It's a situation that is far better than how
things were 10, 20, or 50 years ago. Regimes like those in Syria and North
Korea can act with all-out brutality, but they are outliers - they represent a
fading order.
The new model is to allow a controlled space for free commerce,
for open education, even for dissent. Perhaps people in these countries can use
that space to expand the realm of freedom and liberty.
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